Myanmar

Myanmar regained independence in 1948. However, the internal conflicts rooted in the colonial system's strategy of divided administration have persisted since independence. Following independence, armed resistance from some ethnic groups has led to prolonged domestic armed conflicts in Myanmar, which continue to the present day without resolution. 

These ethnic armed conflicts pose significant threats to achieving lasting peace and national reconciliation while also serving as major obstacles to the country's overall development and progress. Political, economic, and social inequalities led to social unrest in 1988, 1996, 2007, and 2021.

In contemporary Myanmar, successive governments have prioritised peace negotiations to resolve armed conflicts permanently. However, ceasefires have only been temporary, and a comprehensive peace and political solution has not been achieved. Due to various interests, including a lack of trust and irreconcilable political views and affiliations, all sides have remained trapped in a cycle of mutual distrust and renewed fighting. The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), signed during the times of two elected democratic governments (2011-2020) with ten ethnic armed groups (EAOs), managed to establish temporary ceasefires for a certain period. Nevertheless, it must be acknowledged that the NCA has not yet fully succeeded as hoped.

In 2010, Myanmar’s first civilian government under a multi-party democratic system initiated a political transition based on democracy and federalism. In August 2011, it extended a peace offer to the relevant EAOs involved in conflicts, beginning political dialogues. After numerous meetings and negotiations, the first civilian government signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) with eight EAOs in October 2015. Later, under the second civilian government, two additional groups signed the NCA in February 2018. The NCA includes processes for ceasefire management, political dialogue, political transition, and foundational principles for peace-building. There are still EAOs that have not signed the NCA.

Following the 2020 general election, Myanmar experienced another wave of political tensions as questions on voting irregularities arose. The Union Election Commission (UEC) was criticised for failing to address the alleged discrepancies. Subsequently, on February 1, 2021, the Tatmadaw invoked Article 417 of the constitution, declaring a state of emergency and assuming control of the state’s legislative, executive, and judicial branches. The State Administration Council (SAC) was formed on February 2, 2021.

Recently, two NCA signatories left NCA questioning its genuineness and effectiveness. As a result, peace-building efforts remain stalled. Moreover, some EAOs are hesitant to disarm due to concerns about losing the power and privileges they currently enjoy through armed control. They also have differing views on how profits from foreign investments, which could enter ceasefire areas through the NCA, should be shared. Additionally, they worry about losing control over informal economic activities. These factors all contribute to their reluctance to give up their arms.

Due to the political change, those who claimed to have won the 2020 elections, EAOs, newly formed opposing people’s armed forces, are still struggling against SAC. On September 26, 2024, the SAC, on its part, extended an offer to those who are against SAC with arms, including EAOs, to contact them to resolve the political issues through party politics or electoral processes to be able to join hands with the people to emphasise durable peace and development by discarding the armed terrorist way.

Against this backdrop, the present situation in Myanmar is dotted with armed conflicts, and a solution to this conflict is still elusive as it is multi-faceted with security, political, economic and social differences and dynamics.